Leadership on the Edge: Decision-Making in the Midst of Uncertainty

By Cara Sloman, CEO, Force4 

AI agents. Geopolitical tensions. Supply chain disruptions. AI-powered cyber-attacks. These are just some of the significant shifts business leaders are facing. In the midst of all this uncertainty, they are expected to make strategic decisions. Technology can help to a degree, but the strongest assets will be the cultures, habits and frameworks leaders use to anticipate change rather than merely react to it. 

Leaders need to make decisions quickly but also deliberate carefully. They must create agile teams and forego perfection for decision quality. This can happen when leaders set clear priorities, detect market signals early and enable teams to act with confidence in the midst of ambiguity. 

The path to better decision-making 

As I navigated my early career, many of the decisions I made happened in pressure situations and focused on quickly fixing what was right in front of me and moving on to the next challenge. When the market was volatile, I’d try to rein in all variables and maintain control. 

Now that I’ve got more than 20 years of leading a PR firm under my belt, I’ve seen the benefit of a resilience mindset. That involves valuing the long view as well as the quick fix. That entails moving past merely determining what’s wrong to considering how to creatively adapt and emerge stronger. It’s a mindset shift from reaction to resilience. 

Another significant shift I made was from instinct to reflection. I intentionally added more time to reflect on issues, along with more scenario planning and debriefs. I’ve learned to take stock of the way my particular perspective affects how I interpret situations. When the stakes are high and the details are uncertain, I deliberately slow down and ask myself: 

• What are my “known knowns”? 

• What are the unknowns? 

• What assumptions could I be introducing into the situation? 

• Who else could I tap for their perspective? 

The way I conceived of leadership changed, as well. I shifted from a top-down approach to a more collaborative one. I work with my leadership team and sometimes other teams as well to find the blind spots in complex or ambiguous situations. This type of collaboration creates buy-in, too; as others help to define the problem, they become invested in finding the answer. 

When information is incomplete, I find these frameworks useful: 

• The resilience perspective – Uncertainty presents the opportunity to stretch and evolve. 

• Scenario thinking – Identify “constants” and low-regret moves by imagining best-, worst-, and in-between outcomes. 

• The 70% rule – Make decisions when you have about 70% of the information and adjust as necessary. 

• Use collective wisdom – Varied perspectives reveal blind spots and confront biases. 

• Stay rooted in principles – Decisions based on values and long-term priorities hold fast even when data shifts. 

Detecting shifts ahead of the market  

When behavior changes, it signals that a transition is coming. Small shifts in the comments, concerns or questions clients have typically reveal nascent pain points or needs. Subtle patterns in feedback and social conversations surface more than data and metrics. Industry conversations can confirm these observations and serve as an early warning system. 

It’s important to observe the adoption of new tools and technologies, as well as regulatory changes. These observations will provide insight into emerging customer expectations. Larger cultural shifts impact brand expectations and buying behavior in significant ways, too. 

By remaining open-minded and constantly questioning assumptions, rather than relying on what’s worked before,  I can identify signals earlier than competitors. I gather varied perspectives from my diverse personal and professional network. I look for the bigger picture using analytics tools that track patterns. Then, I collate the information from social chatter, feedback, internal performance and competitor moves, sifting through the noise to find the context. 

Learning to make good decisions quickly  

Leaders can run aground when they try to balance accuracy and speed. Although many variables can’t be controlled, many leaders run after perfect accuracy. In PR, pros often try to control what’s inherently outside our control. I recommend using Stephen Covey’s circles of control and influence to help teams act quickly on what’s within their control and let go of what isn’t. 

Deciding which strategic bets to take can be challenging. When everything feels important, home in on the bets that have the most upside and learning value. Start small, test quickly and expand on what’s successful. 

When trying to create a culture of adaptability, several blind spots typically arise. One is the assumption that adaptability stems from processes alone instead of people’s curiosity, mindset and willingness to experiment. A second is placing too much emphasis on planning and not enough on learning. The third is underestimating the significance of psychological safety – but adaptability remains theoretical without it. 

Leaders must focus on insight rather than volume when building a metrics-driven decision culture that doesn’t hamper innovation. Measure only what truly informs better decisions. Add context to metrics so teams understand the “why,” not just the number. Metrics should be a learning tool rather than a tool for micro-managing; this enables speed and accountability to coexist. 

Leaders must ensure than teams are confident making decisions with limited or even contradictory information. Teams must understand when they have decision authority and when alignment is needed. Leaders need to model transparency and establish firm guardrails. When learning is celebrated instead of perfection, teams have the courage to act decisively even in uncertainty.  

Leading the future 

2026’s winning CEOs will be those who create resilient organizations rather than trying to predict every outcome. As they transform their decision-making frameworks, learn to spot early signals of change and empower employees to act, leaders can turn uncertainty into a business advantage. The future will never be fully predictable, but leaders who focus on insight, adaptability and principled decision-making will be ready – no matter what lies ahead.